What the Return of El Nino Means for Hurricane Season

HELLO, I'M JENNIFER CRAWFORD. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US AS FLORIDA PREPARES TO ENTER PEAK HURRICANE SEASON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HURRICANE GENEVIEVE HAS WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY AFTER BECOMING THE FIRST CAT 5 HURRICANE THIS YEAR. HURRICANE GENEVIEVE HAD QUICKLY INTENSIFIED FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO A CAT 4 STORM IN JUST 2 DAYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASED TO 160 MILES PER HOUR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DESIGNATED IT AS A CAT 5 STORM. THE FIRST CAT 5 IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE 2024. AT THE CENTER OF THE STORM LIES THE WEATHER PATTERNS. EL NINO. FOR MORE ON THE RETURN OF EL NINO, WE ARE JOINED BY DOCTOR IRE. HE IS A PROFESSOR OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE AT NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY. DOCTOR, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY. >> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. >> LET'S START WITH HURRICANE GENEVIEVE AND THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT WE SAW THIS WEEK. WHAT ROLE DID EL NINO HAVE IN IN THAT INTENSE THAT THEY KAISHA OF THE STORM? >> WELL, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY. GIVE YOU THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FROM. BUT THAT HAPPENED BASED ON WHAT I SEE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR IN THE YEARS TO HAVE PRETTY STRONG AND ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE OCEANS, PRETTY WARM AND THE MOST OBVIOUS EXPLANATION I CAN THINK OF IS THAT WE HAD A PRIEST WARM OCEAN, WHICH SUPPLIES THE FUEL THAT SAYS THE THE WATER VAPOR FROM THE OCEAN. AND SO MANY HAVE VERY STRONG. YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE A MUCH WARMER OCEAN SURFACE. TEMPERATURES AND THAT ALLOWS FOR TROPICAL STORMS TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND REACH REALLY EXTREME IN 10 CITIES LIKE GENERATE IT. >> FOR ANYONE WHO'S NOT FAMILIAR WITH WHAT BILL NINO IS. CAN YOU DESCRIBE THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND GIVE US AN EXPLANATION? SURE. >> YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU'RE FIRST OF THIS, THE ARCTIC WARMING OF THE TEMPERATURES OFF EASTERN PACIFIC. TURNS OUT THAT EVERY 2 TO 7 YEARS WE GET A TEXAS OF WARMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. TEMPERATURES. NORMALLY THE OCEAN IS MUCH WARMER IN THE BEST IN THE CIF EXCITE. BUT EVERY 2 TO 7 YEARS IT MIGHT BE EAST OF PACIFIC. THAT MIGHT REALLY WARM UP. AND THIS PARTICULAR WARMING IS CALLED EL NINO. NOW, EVEN THOUGH IT ISN'T, IT IS FIRST YOU CAN THINK OF IT AS AN OCEAN PHENOMENON IS IT REALLY COUPLED OCEAN AT THIS FOR FUN ON THE NIGHT. IN FACT, IMPACTS GLOBAL WEATHER PATTERNS. FOR INSTANCE, THIS YEAR AND WE KNOW IS LEADING TO DELAYED AND EVEN DRIER MONSOON OVER INDIA, FRANCE. SO IT IS THIS PERIODIC WARMING UP OF THE OCEAN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAT. YOU'RE FOR DOESN'T MEAN YOU ARE A FLEET OCCURS EVERY 2 TO 7 YEARS. >> DR IS IT'S FOCUSED IN THE PACIFIC. HOW DOES THAT IMPACT WATERS IN THE GULF AREA AND ALL THE WAY THE ATLANTIC? >> GREAT. SO EVEN THOUGH THE OCEAN WARMING MAY BE IN THESE TO THIS EFFECT AND ACTUALLY COMMUNICATES THAT WARMING ACROSS THE GLOBE, NOT JUST IN THE GULF, BUT TO THE PLAN TAKEN EVEN INTO ASIA AND A CURSE TO HAVE THIS VERY CRISP ON STA THAT WARMING IT. AND SO THIS WARMING OF THE PACIFIC LEADS TO CHANGES IN GLOBAL CIRCULATIONS CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTIONS THAT ARE NOT JUST LOCALIZED OVER THE SPECIFIC BUT ACTUALLY SPREADS THROUGH. WILL BE CALLED MEAN CIRCULATION AND ATMOSPHERIC WAVES. AND THAT'S HOW WE CAN HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE OF WHAT MIGHT SEEM TO BE A LOCALIZED PHENOMENON. >> NOW, IF WE LOOK AT OUR GULF TEMPERATURES AND HOW THEY IMPACT FORMATION OF HURRICANES, HOW TO OUR WATER TEMPERATURES NOW COMPARED TO PAST YEARS. >> AND IT HAS BEEN PRETTY WORN TO FIGHT. EVEN LAST YEAR, YOU MIGHT RECALL IT WAS PRETTY ONE, EVEN THOUGH WE DIDN'T GET AS MANY STORMS AS WE COULD HAVE. AND DURING THE YOUNGER YEARS, TYPICALLY THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF REMAINS PRETTY WARM. AND SO IT'S GOING TO WARM AS THE, YOU KNOW, THE PHASE OF AND WE NEED TO CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER. >> AND IT'S BEEN QUIET RIGHT NOW. FINGERS CROSSED IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF. WHAT ROLE DOES MEAN YOU'LL PLAY AS WE GO THROUGH THE END OF THE SUMMER AND INTO THE FALL MONTHS. >> YEAH, HISTORICALLY, I MEAN, YOU'RE TENSE TOO. DAMPEN THE PLAN TAKE OF TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS. AND I CAN GET INTO THAT IF YOU IF YOU'D LIKE TO. SO SO WE ARE EXPECTING A BELOW NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON. AND I AS STEALING IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. WE EXPECT THAT PREDICTION TO PRETTY MUCH REMAIN VALID. BUT OF COURSE, WE'LL SEE AT THE END OF THE SEASON. HOW HANDS UP. >> CAN YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT SOME OF THE KEY FACTORS ARE THAT ARE RELATED TO AL NINO THAT WE SHOULD KEEP OUR EYES ON AS WE LOOK TO THE FUTURE AS WE APPROACH PEAK HURRICANE SEASON. >> SAID HISTORICALLY AN INTENSE TOO PRODUCED CONDITIONS THAT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOR HURRICANES TO FORM. AND SO WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL ACTIVITY. BUT THAT OFTEN DOESN'T TRANSLATE TO INDIVIDUAL STORMS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD STILL SLIP AND SO TO SPEAK. YOU CAN STILL HAVE CONDITIONS THAT ARE CONDUCIVE 4 HURRICANES TO FORM AND EVEN CAUSE LANDFALL. SO OBVIOUSLY CERTAINLY NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN. BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY OF A STRONG HURRICANE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE OTHER, YOU KNOW, WEATHER EVENTS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE IMPACTED THEM. YOU KNOW, FOR INSTANCE, YOU STILL GOT A PRETTY INTENSE STORMY SEASON IN THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.S. BUT TO THE SOUTHEAST, FLORIDA COULD STILL SEE LOTS OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT HURRICANE LIES. WE MIGHT NOT SEE AS MANY. >> ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR SHARING THIS INFORMATION WITH US TODAY. DOCTOR.