Tropical Storm Isaias

AN IMPORTANT EXERCISE ROUTINE TO ITS RESIDENTS. HELLO, I'M JENNIFER CRAWFORD. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. A TROPICAL STORM IS GAINING STRENGTH IN THE WARM GULF WATERS AND FORECASTERS EXPECT IT WILL BECOME THE VERY FIRST HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON BEFORE APPROACHING THE GULF COAST STATES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IS NOT IN THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE STORM, BUT IN THE PANHANDLE AREA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. 25 COUNTIES ARE UNDER A STATE OF EMERGENCY IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. JOINING US NOW IS METEOROLOGIST ANDREW WOLF PACK FROM THE FLORIDA PUBLIC EMERGENCY RADIO NETWORK. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY. >> ABSOLUTELY. WE'RE TRACKING ISAIAS THERE. >> WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATUS AND THE PROJECTED PATH OF THIS POWERFUL STORM? >> WELL, IT'S CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT'S FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR SEASON'S FIRST HURRICANE, WHICH IS A BIT UNUSUAL THAT WE ARE IN MID-OCTOBER, TALKING ABOUT OUR POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST HURRICANE. BUT NONETHELESS, A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY TOMORROW, WHICH IS THURSDAY. AND THEN ON FRIDAY, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT A 10205 MILES AN HOUR, MAYBE EVEN UP TO 110 MILES AN HOUR IN TERMS OF MAXWELL SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. SO THAT IS A CATEGORY 2. >> SO FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, UP TO THE PANHANDLE, WHAT KINDS OF IMPACTS COULD WE EXPECT IN THE STATE OF FLORIDA? >> WILLFUL. IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST, ONE BECAUSE WE HAVE SO MANY WEATHER MECHANISMS THAT AROUND THE SOUTHEAST, IF YOU WILL, WE ACTUALLY HAVE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DISTRICT ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AND THAT'S WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THE SQUALLY WEATHER RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE STATE. I KNOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE SEEN FLOODING OR EVEN REMINDS REMEMBER HURRICANE OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW. BUT THAT IS NOT IN ANY WAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. SO MANY MORE FLORIDIANS ARE GONNA BE IMPACTED BY THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT'S GOING TO BE GOING UP AND DOWN THE STATE VERSUS THE HURRICANE ITSELF. THE HURRICANE IMPACTS ARE GOING TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE PANHANDLE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED BANDS THAT WORK THEIR WAY, YOU KNOW, FROM THE GULF ON TO THE PENINSULA. BUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF US, AGAIN, IT'S ALL GOING TO BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD HAVE BEEN NEWS ON A NORMAL WEEK. >> CAN YOU TALK ABOUT HOW YOU'RE USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WEATHER MODELS TO FACTOR INTO FORECASTING. >> RIGHT. SO THIS IS A GROWING TREND, IF YOU WILL, IN THE METEOROLOGY CULL O WORLD THE INVENTION OR THE USE OF I I OUR MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS STORM SYSTEM. FIRST. THEY KNOW I'M NOT GOING TO SAY THEY HAVE BEEN THE MOST ACCURATE WITH IT, BUT THEY CONTINUE A SHOW OF MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. SO THAT WOULD MEAN SOMETHING ON THE ORDER UP. LET'S SAY BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY VERSUS THE OLDER DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE FURTHER WEST. LET'S SAY ALABAMA, SO IT'S REALLY GOING TO BE A A CASE IN WHICH WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO GO BACK. LOOK AT THE MODELS. SEE WHICH ONES WERE MORE ACCURATE. IT'S STILL UP IN THE AIR. I CAN WIN THIS ONE OR WHETHER THE OLD RELIABLE MODELS WHEN THIS ONE. BUT IT'S CERTAINLY GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHICH ONE WINS THE BATTLE. >> AND CAN YOU HELP US UNDERSTAND WHAT CONDITIONS MADE THIS STORM RIGHT FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF, ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. >> IT'S A VERY ODD CASE. AS YOU KNOW, WE HAVE BEEN EL NINO THAT'S BEEN STRONG AND GETTING STRONGER AND IS NEAR RECORD-BREAKING STRENGTH OVER THE OVER THE PACIFIC. THAT'S WHY THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS PRODUCED OUR HURRICANE YET SO FAR THIS YEAR. AND, YOU KNOW, WE MAY BREAK THAT TREND COME TOMORROW OR ON. AND THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH OF AN AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, NORTHERN BACON PT WHERE A MASSIVE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABLE TO COALESCE AROUND THE CENTER AND AND IT HAS GENERALLY INCREASED AN ORGANIZATION EVER SINCE YESTERDAY. AND THIS LITTLE POCKET THAT OF A LES ARE ATMOSPHERIC WINDS, IF YOU WILL, GREATER MOISTURE, IT'S GOING TO RUN OUT, RIGHT? IT'S NOT IT'S NOT GOING TO TAKE. IT'S IT'S NOT GOING TO LEAD ITS WAY ALL THE WAY TO LAND. SO IT'S ONLY A NARROW POCKET AND WHICH THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT GETS TIED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND THIS YEAR, WHICH WILL HELP TO RIP THIS CYCLONE APART. AND THAT WILL START ON FRIDAY. BUT THE KEY POINT IS AT WHAT TIME PERIOD ON FRIDAY. DOES THAT START TO SET START AT LANDFALL? THIS HAS STARTED AN HOUR TO BEFORE LANDFALL. THAT'S THAT'S START AND HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. SO THE INGREDIENTS THAT THE GOOD INGREDIENTS AREN'T GOING TO BE AROUND FOR A WHOLE LOT FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM. SO THAT'S WHY WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT A HURRICANE MICHAEL SITUATION. I KNOW WE'RE COMING UP ON THAT ANNIVERSARY FOR THE FOR FOR THE FOLKS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE STRENGTHENING TOWARDS THE SHORELINE AND EVEN ON SHORE. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE SHORT TERM. BUT THEN IN THE LONGER TERM, IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TOWARDS LAND. >> AND AS WE MOVE FORWARD THROUGH OCTOBER. >> WHAT SHOULD WE BE PAYING ATTENTION TO EVEN THOUGH WE ARE LATE INTO THE HURRICANE SEASON? >> THAT'S RIGHT. THE LATEST ON HURRICANE HAS EVER IMPACTED THE STATE. IT'S ALL THE WAY TO JUST ABOUT THANKSGIVING. IT HAPPENED IN THE 1980'S HURRICANE KATE. IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY GROUT SEVERAL WEEKS AT A TIME. SO I'M NOT ANTICIPATING ARE NOT SEEING ANOTHER NAMED STORM SYSTEM, THAT LEAST IN OUR PART OF THE WORLD IN THE GULF OR THE CARIBBEAN. SO THIS MIGHT BE, IF YOU WILL, THE GRAND FINALE OF THE SEASON. I KNOW IT REALLY HAS FELT LIKE A SEASON BECAUSE WE'VE ONLY HAD ABOUT 9 NAMED STORMS, 9 OF WHICH HAVE BECOME HURRICANE SO FAR. BUT AGAIN, THE GOOD NEWS, I DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AND THERE IS SOME EVEN SNOW. EVEN FROST AND FREEZE ADVISORIES THAT WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES. NOT FLORIDA, HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE ON OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENT. SO WE ARE REALLY GOING TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT AND HEADING MORE TOWARDS WINTER VERSUS KEEPING THE SUMMER THEME. GO ON GOING. >> ALL RIGHT. WELL, THANK YOU