Local Ramifications of Redistricting

>> JOINING ME NOW TO EXPLORE THE IMPACT OF THESE MOVES AND WHAT IT ALL MEANS GOING FORWARD IS FLORIDA GULF COAST UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR DOCTOR SANDRA PAVELKA WGCU HOST AND REPORTER JOHN DAVIS. WELCOME TODAY. THANKS, JOHN. COULD YOU FIRST SUMMARIZE FOR US WHAT HAPPENED IN TALLAHASSEE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLORIDA LAWMAKERS AND THEIR VOTE TO REDRAW OUR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT MAPS. YEAH. THE HOUSE AND SENATE WERE VOTING ON A PROPOSED CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING MAP THAT DESANTIS HAD DRAFTED AND PUT FORTH. >> AND WHAT IT AIMS TO DO IS TO FLIP 4 OF THE CONGRESSIONAL SEATS CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS TO REPUBLICANS. CURRENTLY WE CAN. WE HAVE 28 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS. REPUBLICANS HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THEM. THEY HAVE 20 DEMOCRATS HAVE 8. BUT IF THE FALL ELECTION GOES THE WAY DESANTIS THINK SIT WELL WITH THE WAY HE'S WHEN THESE NEW MAP BOUNDARIES FOR HALF OF THE DEMOCRATIC SEATS THAT FLORIDA CURRENTLY HAS WOULD FLIP TO REPUBLICAN. NOW, THIS SPECIFIC ONES THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT, THE DEMOCRATIC STATES THAT ARE IN DANGER NOW ARE AT THE TAMPA BAY AREA THAT'S REPRESENTED BY KATHY CASTOR AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DARREN SOTO SEAT. ALSO DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ AND LOIS FRANKEL SEATS IN SOUTH FLORIDA, FEDERICO WILSON SEE DOES SEEM LIKE IT'S STILL GOING TO BE SAFE AS THOSE JARED MOSKOWITZ SAYS SO. BUT IT REALLY IS JUST TARGETING THOSE 4. AND I WAS CURIOUS, DOCTOR, PROVOKING TO GET YOUR OPINION ON. HOW DESANTIS CHOSE TO TARGET, WHICH DEMOCRATIC LEANING CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS HE WANTED TO FLIP WITH THIS BECAUSE ALL OF THESE MEMBERS OF CONGRESS HAVE HAD SPOTS WITH THE GOVERNOR, AT LEAST IDEOLOGICALLY. WELL, THESE ARE DISTRICTS THAT HAVE REALLY >> STRONG DEMOCRATIC BASE DISTRICTS FOR YEARS AND I THINK IT'S IN TERMS OF STRATEGY THAT THE GOVERNOR REALLY WANTED TO IDENTIFY THESE DISTRICTS IN AND CHANGE THOSE THOSE BOUNDARIES FOR THOSE CONGRESSIONAL LINES. BUT I REALLY THINK IT IT ITS STRATEGIC ON THE GOVERNOR'S PART, PERSONAL. >> YEAH. HOW DID HOW DID THE VOTE FALL? WAS IT STRICTLY ALONG PARTY LINES IN BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE? >> IT WAS MOSTLY ALONG PARTY LINES. THERE WERE 4 REPUBLICANS IN THE SENATE WHO BROKE RANKS WITH THEIR PARTY AND VOTED AGAINST THE MAP OUTSIDE JASON BRODER, JENNIFER BRADLEY, CAROL HARRELL AND DEBBIE MAYFIELD. THEY GAVE OF A FEW REASONS FOR WHY THEY COULDN'T SUPPORT THE MAPS. PRIMARILY THE LEGAL RISK OF THE MAPS BEING STRUCK DOWN IN COURTS. ALSO JUST THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS LEGISLATIVE SESSION HAPPENED AND THE FACT THAT THEY WERE VOTING ON A MAP THAT THE GOVERNOR PROPOSED THERE WERE NO ALTERNATIVE MAP PROPOSALS BEING LOOKED AT. THERE WAS NO KIND OF LEGISLATIVE COMPROMISE, WHICH IS A MORE TRADITIONAL WAY OF DOING THINGS. BUT MAINLY THEY WERE WORRIED THAT THIS WOULD VIOLATE THE FAIR DISTRICT AMENDMENTS THAT FLORIDA VOTERS AND TRYING TO THE STATE CONSTITUTION IN 2010. CAN YOU TELL US MORE ABOUT THOSE FAIR DISTRICT AMENDMENTS? YEAH. SO THOSE BASICALLY ENSHRINED IN THE STATE CONSTITUTION THAT CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT LINES AND LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT LINES COULD NOT BE DRAWN TO FAVOR A PARTY OR AN INCUMBENT OR TO DIMINISH MINORITY VOTERS ABILITY TO ELECT CANDIDATES OF THEIR CHOICE. BUT ITS ALSO INTERESTING BECAUSE THE WHOLE CONCEPT OF DIMINISHING MINORITY VOTERS ABILITY TO ELECT CANDIDATES OF THEIR CHOICE, LIES AT THE HEART OF A LANDMARK U.S. SUPREME COURT DECISION WHICH ALSO CAME DOWN WEDNESDAY. >> AND HOW DOES THAT ALL COME INTO PLAY WITH WHAT'S GOING ON IN OUR STATE LEVEL? >> WELL, I THINK WHAT WE'RE REALLY LOOKING AT IS THAT WE'RE IN THE WHOLE POINT ABOUT AMENDMENT AND OUR CONSTITUTION IS TO ENSURE FAIRNESS AND COMPETITIVENESS IN ELECTIONS. SO THAT'S REALLY WHAT THAT THE ONUS IS UPON. NOT ONLY THE LEGISLATURE, THE GOVERNOR, BUT ALSO THE VOTERS. SO THIS IS SOMETHING I THINK THAT THAT OUR VOTERS AND OUR ELECTED OFFICIALS REALLY NEED TO TAKE TO HEART. AND IS THIS MAP? CREATING FAIR ELECTIONS? IS IT CREATING COMPETITIVE ELECTIONS? >> AND HOW DOES THIS IMPACT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA? >> WELL, THE NEW MAP REALLY MINIMALLY EFFECTS US BECAUSE WE ARE TRADITIONALLY SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THAT IS TRADITIONALLY A REPUBLICAN OR A REAL RED KIND OF AREA WITHIN THE STATE IT IT HASN'T BEEN RUN. REDRAWN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY AT AS OTHER DISTRICTS THAT JOHN MENTIONED. BUT IT HAS AFFECTED KIND OF THE NORTHERN AND TO SOME EXTENT AND THE SOUTHERN SOUTHERN KIND OF GOES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AND THE NORTHERN MAP GOES FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SARASOTA, WHICH SO 17 IN 19 ARE AFFECTED. MINIMALLY. THAT'S VERY INTERESTING. >> AND I WAS THINKING OF SOMETHING THAT I I READ WAS SENATOR BRADLEY, WHO'S ONE OF THE GOP MEMBERS THAT VOTED AGAINST THESE MAPS SAYING THAT IT'S, QUOTE, BLATANTLY UNCONSTITUTIONAL AND THAT BRINGS US TO THERE ARE A LOT OF VOTING RIGHTS GROUPS THAT ARE VOWING TO CERTAINLY FILE LEGAL CHALLENGES AS WE SPEAK. WHAT IS YOUR WHAT IS ANY UPDATE OR STATUS ON THAT ON LITIGATION THAT COULD ENSUE FROM THIS? TO MY KNOWLEDGE, NOTHING HAS BEEN FILED YET, BUT IT'S CERTAINLY COMING. IT'S DEFINITELY COME. I WOULD BE SHOCKED IF IT HADN'T. >> AND A LOT OF THESE GROUPS ARE LIKE THE NAACP. THE ACLU COMMON CAUSE FLORIDA, FAIR DISTRICTS. NOW THESE ARE ORGANIZATIONS THAT HAVE HAD LEGAL BATTLES WITH THE, YOU KNOW, THE FLORIDA EXECUTIVE BRANCH OVER REDISTRICTING IN THE PAST YOU KNOW, I I DON'T THINK IT'S LIKELY THAT ANY CHALLENGE THAT'S FILED IS GOING TO BE RESOLVED IN TIME FOR THIS YEAR'S MIDTERM ELECTIONS. BUT EVEN IF THAT DID HAPPEN, THERE'S SOMETHING CALLED THE PURCELL PRINCIPLE, BUT I THINK WOULD MAKE IT EVEN LESS LIKELY THAT IT WOULD HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND THAT GOES BACK TO A SUPREME COURT DECISION FROM 2006 IN ARIZONA. AND AGAIN, IT'S NOT A HARD AND FAST RULE, BUT IT DOES JUST BASICALLY MEAN THAT YOU'RE NOT GOING TO IMPOSE ANY NEW CHANGES TO ELECTION LAW SO CLOSE TO AN ELECTION. >> SO THERE ARE A COUPLE SCENARIOS THAT MAY HAPPEN IF THE IF THE COURT DOES ADDRESSES AND AND DECIDES TO VOTE ON IT. SO THE THE THE COURT CAN ACTUALLY VOTE TO UPHOLD THE MAP. THAT WOULD BE ONE OPTION. ONE SCENARIO A SECOND WOULD BE A STRIKE IT DOWN COMPLETELY AND THEY CAN ACTUALLY REDRAW THE MAP OR SEND IT BACK TO THE LEGISLATURE FOR THEIR REVISIONS. SO THERE ARE A COUPLE SCENARIOS IN CASE THAT THE COURT IS ABLE WELL, IF THERE ARE ANY LEGAL AND B, IF IF THEY DO MAKE IT TO THE COURT AND THEY CAN OBVIOUSLY MAKE THOSE DECISIONS ACCORDINGLY. AND ALSO WITH THIS NEW SUPREME COURT DECISION, YOU KNOW, CONCERNING THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT. >> AND HOW IT WOULD IMPACT THE FAIR DISTRICT AMENDMENTS HERE IN THE FLORIDA CONSTITUTION. THEY COULD RULE THE FAIR DISTRICT AMENDMENTS UNCONSTITUTIONAL AS WELL. ABSOLUTELY. SO WE JUST DON'T KNOW. YEAH, WAIT AND SEE. WE WILL. AND WE SAW THIS IN LOUISIANA WHERE LOUISIANA'S WAS STRUCK DOWN. OBVIOUSLY. >> THAT WAS THAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK, TOO. SO THERE WAS A LOT GOING ON WITH REGARD TO REDUCE REDISTRICTING AND AND COURT OPINIONS. WELL, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TODAY. DOCTOR PAVELKA FROM FGCU AND OF COURSE, OUR HOST. >> FROM WGCU JOHN DAVIS. THANK YOU.