Strong El Niño translates to calm Atlantic Hurricane Season...so far

This is Gulf Coast Life. I’m Mike Kiniry, thanks for joining us. In case you hadn't noticed, we're having a downright quiet hurricane season. The midway point of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was September 10th, and that's pretty much considered the traditional peak of the season. Yet there hasn't been a single named hurricane. Not one. There have been five named tropical storms, and three of them made landfall, but none impacted us here in Florida. Since meteorologists started using satellites to track the weather in the 1960s, we've never made it this far into a hurricane season without a named hurricane. While weather systems are complicated and many factors are at play, the fact that we're also entering the strongest El Nino conditions on record is certainly playing a part. El Nino and its counterpart, La Nina, are basically phenomena determining that that are determined by how warm the ocean water is in the Pacific, and how that affects how the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean behave, which in turn has a major impact on weather patterns beyond the Pacific Ocean. Think more active tropical season in the Pacific, less active in the Atlantic. Normal, El Nino and La Nina are fairly common. Super El Ninos are less common. The last one was about a decade ago, and the one before that was in 1997. But this year's El Nino so far exceeds the typical super El Nino that were in kind of uncharted territory. Joining me today to help us understand what all this means and whether I got all that right and more is Megan Broski. She's senior meteorologist with the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network. Welcome back to the show, Megan. It is great to be here. Thanks, Mike. How did I do? And trying to top level characterize what El Nino and La Nina are. I think you did a good job. I will mention that we have now had six named storms in the Atlantic basin. We just had one over the weekend develop Faye, which it's now post-tropical. It's weakening and dissipating. But overall, with the description of El Nino and La Nina, I think you did a great 300 zero foot view. Well, 30,000ft view. I love it. So, you know, a obligatory nice to talk to you when there's not a hurricane bearing down on this sentiment, but B because of this El Nino that we're going to dig into, we maybe are in sort of rather than an acute disaster kind of up to, situation that's unfolding. Is that a fair assessment? Yeah, I would say, you know, it's certainly helped to keep a lid on any tropical systems, you know, really blossoming and impacting us this season. Of course, we still have two months left and a lot can happen over the course of two months. But we've been safe so far this season. I will say, as we look ahead to the wintertime months, El Nino actually might be a problem for us. So saving us so far this, you know, tropical season. But again, once we get into the winter, we'll we'll see what happens because El Nino can help to to increase our chance for storms in Florida. You know, I've talked to you about sort of top level weather stuff on the show before, and I've talked to plenty of meteorologists. And when El Nino and La Nina come up, you know, I usually don't dig too deep because it feels like in most years it's just kind of an edge case thing that might nudge things one direction or another or another. But what we're in now is, is not that right? This is definitely something different than just an average year. Oh yeah. Yeah, it's definitely influencing things. We can see that already. You know, we have warm ocean temperatures, but even with that, El Nino is really helping to increase shear in that main development region, which is just, you know, preventing, you know, any waves from actually really being able to organize, you know, each year when El Nino develops, it really depends on the strength. And also actually when it develops, does it have enough time to really kick in and influence the Atlantic hurricane season? And it seems like everything just aligned this year for it to really, really impact positively for us the hurricane season. So I mentioned in the intro, sort of the top level understanding what are the the sort of data points that meteorologists are looking at in the Pacific that determine whether a season is El Nino or La Nina, like, I think it's temperature, but I explain it in more detail. There's different indices and, you know, but the main thing is sea surface. And we'll look across different sections of the Pacific Ocean, the equatorial Pacific Ocean. And actually Noah just released an update today. And in the eastern Pacific, sea surface temperatures are running over three degrees above normal. And that's that's really significant. That might not seem a lot, but that is really significant for an El Nino event. You know, other things that that we use to describe what happens during El Nino are the trade winds. Right? So normally near the equator, our trade winds near the western coast of South America are going to blow from east to west. And that helps with upwelling and keeping temperatures cool off the west coast of South America. But those trade winds actually can can weaken or reverse during a very strong period and really help to pull warm waters off the west coast of South America. That's what we're seeing during this Super El Nino event. You mentioned the three degrees that they just announced. So if I've got it right, like more than about a half a degree would be enough to call it an El Nino or a lot Nina, if it was minus half degree, I guess. And then a super, which I understand is not a technical term, but it has become sort of common parlance. Would be like around two degrees. And so the fact that we're at three means that we're half again higher than what's normally considered super. Yep. Yeah, absolutely. So, do the ocean temperatures and the trade winds and the La Nina or the El Nino rather? Do they have anything to do with, like the the Gulf current, you know, the loop currents in the Gulf or the North Atlantic currents? I mean, we're talking winds and how those affect tropical systems. But does it also have broader impacts when it comes to how water moves around, around the globe? I would say it has more impacts on how air is going to be moving. So for example, as we enter the autumn and winter time months here, I'll Nino is going to help and the strong El Nino is going to help. And the jet over the United States and. Well, what does that mean for us? Well, the jet stream will reach further south. That's what we've seen in the past, and we will probably see it. It's pretty confidence is very high that we'll see that over the wintertime months. And that means that our storm tracks then, will actually trend farther south. So while during a normal time winter you might see winter storms track across, you know, the the Ohio Valley and then into the northeast, you'll see storm tracks now, you know, hug maybe the Gulf Coast. And that's when we can get those severe thunderstorms impacting the Gulf Coast and the state of Florida. So those big snow making storms that we might see in a normal winter are going to become rain making storms, potentially for for us down here. Yeah, absolutely. So we are definitely looking at the a high, high chance for a wetter than normal winter, which is actually a very good thing for us in Florida. You know, we don't want a constant deluge during the wintertime months, but the rainy season over the state has been somewhat lackluster, or it has been delayed to really, you know, kick off, especially June and July has been very dry. We started to see a transition of a more stormy pattern in August. And in the month of September we've had some pretty robust thunderstorm days. But nonetheless, as of you know, we're speaking now. Most of the state is at least abnormally dry or classified under a, you know, a drought category. And so, you know, rainy season is going to be dying out here from south to north over the next couple of weeks. And we need rain over the dry season or else will be entering the end of dry season next year. And a very bad and potentially, you know, an equal or worse than where we were last year. Well, we've certainly had some big rains around here in the last week or two here in Southwest Florida. And so by extension, though, that, does that mean that the Midwest and the storms, those big snow making storms that would normally hit up there are probably there's going to be fewer of them. So maybe a milder winter up north. Well, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Plains definitely trend drier during an El Nino winter or warmer rather. And and the the Corn Belt area, the Ohio Valley, the the mid Mississippi Valley, those areas trend drier. So we might have an issue with drought in those those regions as we enter next year and into the spring and summer months. You know, we you mentioned that we can use the rain down here because the drought we've been in and I know you're you don't probably focus all that much, but as I understand it, the the the like the Colorado area, the Upper Midwest has, has their in their droughts of their own and they've got some big water sources that are low. If they get less snow, that's going to compound those issues up there, I presume. Correct. And it would also, you know, you'd see immediate impacts, I guess, because they're dry now. But then also, you know, you rely on the snow melt. And so if you don't have any snow melts later on in the year, you're still going to have issues. So they have prolonged issues because of this. And you know, they're still experiencing heat waves in the plains. They just had one, I believe, with the, you know, heat advisory in effect. And so, you know, with the lack of water into the, you know, early spring season, we might have a wildfire problem in those regions. But with the wetter, wetter Florida pattern here, thankfully, I don't think that's going to be an issue for us. So I looked it up in the the. NOAA's initial 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook predicted 8 to 14 named storms. So if we're at six, we're kind of on track to reach that. But they also called for 3 to 6 hurricanes, 1 to 3 of which would be major. And obviously those are just predictions. So, you know, as a meteorologist who does tropical stuff like how, you know, could you have imagined that you would be into the third week of September and have not had a named hurricane yet in any year, let alone, you know, what we're watching this year? I've had many years of experience now here in Florida and just doing it being and I now know, I always expect the unexpected, so nothing surprises me anymore. I always expect things to, you know, to be surprised, I guess is is a way to say it. I will say, Mike, that in August Noah did update their outlook and they turned it down to 7 to 13 name storms. So it's looking like we will likely hit the low end range of that. And we need to just need one more name storm in the Atlantic. But yeah 2 to 6 hurricanes, 0 to 2 major hurricanes. We still have over two months left with season. You know there could be sweet spot where we do get a wave eject off of Africa. And, you know, the conditions just might be right where we get a quick spin up. I will say that the National Hurricane Center right now, as of Tuesday morning, is monitoring right off the coast of Africa for potential tropical development over the next seven days. So we'll see what happens. There certainly is possible that we just hit the low end of the Noah forecast, but it's anybody's prediction at this point. I always, you know, as I just said, I'm prepared to be surprised every day with what Mother Nature does. This is probably an impossible question to answer, but it does. Does does one year necessarily inform the next? In other words, you know, if we have a really, really robust El Nino this year, you know, beyond normal, robust, does that necessarily say anything about how things will play out over the next year or two when it comes to things? In other words, can the oscillation that we expect, you know, be modified so we don't get the oscillation that we expect? Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't say that next year is going to be a carbon copy of this year. You know, of course we we peak with our El Nino and then we have to trend downward out of it and approach neutral levels. But the ocean and atmosphere are going to lag in. You know, you get the conditions in the ocean for near the Pacific, and then the rest of the globe has to follow suit. So, you know, next year we might have a below average season, but perhaps not as below as the year. If if we come out of the El Nino and things are looking like, at least for the next couple of months. Nina will stay strong. We'll see if it persists into next year. We'll see how quickly it starts to wane. If it does wane, you know, by the spring or the summer, what happens that it might take the atmosphere a little bit of time to catch up? Which, again, would be a good thing if we don't want hurricanes. But we'll see what happens. You know, you've been. How long have you been with FPREN now? Probably five, six years. This is my eighth season filling, so I'm seven and a couple months, seven years in a couple. Of months. So you've experienced super busy seasons obviously. And you know, what's it like for you all up there during a season like this when there's not as much going on? I presume you still have plenty of other things to keep you busy, but it must be kind of a nice bit of respite. Yeah, I mean, I'm sure people think we're just sitting around doing nothing, but there's there's a lot of things to do for, you know, we're centered in Gainesville, of course. So we actually assist with with operations around campus. So there's a lot of thunderstorm tracking and thunderstorm predicting. And, you know, we're following the drought as well. And we're watching that, you know, start to wane and dissipate. But there's a lot of content to do. And so I am happy though that so far we haven't had to, you know, deal with any major tropical impacts. You know, a couple seasons there is just back to back to back storms. And it is it's heartbreaking to be doing the storm coverage and knowing what is going to happen and what is happening over, over your state. And, you know, the only thing you can do is sit in the studio and talk about it and alert folks. But it's a very it's a very sobering experience doing that hurricane coverage. And, you know, again, as I said, when we had back to back to back storms there for a couple of years in a row, it's just it's tough. It's tough to watch. So I'm thankful that we really, in Florida have not had to deal with it and that, you know, we can kind of mentally recover, you know, as Floridians of, okay, you know, maybe things will just stay quiet this year. Is all this heat that the El Nino is bringing or representing. I'm not sure which. Could it possibly fuel even more heat or outlying weather conditions elsewhere? Besides, just like wind over the Atlantic and the Pacific? You know, we hear so much about how the different systems of the planet are interacting, you know, could have really, really outlier year like this, have some sort of other ripple effect that we may not even be able to predict. I that's a deep question. You know, I would say that maybe there are things that we haven't discovered yet of the long term impacts, maybe of a super only meal like this. But I will say that everything across the globe is connected. Right. And so we just focus on on the Atlantic, our discussion here. But, you know, if anybody's been paying attention to the Pacific, the Pacific basin, it has been a very, very active hurricane season. And that is due in part or, you know, a lot of part to the Supreme. I think we're already up to the 16th named storm in the eastern Pacific basin. And so it is very active over there. So there's other impacts that we've not talked about here on this radio program. But you know, again, the the ocean is connected around the world and the atmosphere of course, spans the globe. And so, you know, a big event like this, a big like does impact global, global patterns. Yeah, I think that I've read that there's already been three, three category five or they called hurricanes or they called something else in the Pacific, but three categories typhoons. Three in the Western Pacific. Okay, hurricane or typhoon, but I think three category five so far this year. And I know I've seen at least two news stories about different storms hitting Hawaii, which I, the person they were interviewing made it seem like that wasn't all that common. So. So yeah, the Pacific's getting the opposite of what we're getting. Yep, yep. So it's like a seesaw of when the you know, when we active Atlantic, the Pacific may be quiet with you know we're looking strictly at El Nino and vice versa. But yeah it's been quite active. I know there's been a few typhoons hitting Japan. We had a few skirt near Hawaii. Now of course, Hawaii's just you know, when you look at the Pacific Ocean, it's a little, you know, dot in or several deaths in the Pacific. So of course you're not going to be looking at landfall that often. But I don't know if you saw this, Mike. It was it was pretty cool to see one of the systems. I forget the name, but when it tracked nearby, you know, of course, the higher elevations got snow. So hurricane snow happened, which is. Which is pretty cool. When that happens. I would have remembered hurricane snow. That was one I missed. Somehow. I don't know what we would do as Floridians if we got hurricane snow. Yeah, yeah it would. It would make the news, that's for sure. I'm not going to put you on the spot for this because I know you're not an economist, but when it comes to economic impact of El Nino, I read that, the while the Great Recession. This is a quote from the Guardian. While the Great Recession of 2008 resulted in global GDP reducing by about 2 trillion, the 199798 Super El Nino resulted in losses of about 5.5 trillion. So this isn't just about, you know, how hot it is or how rainy it is, but globally, crops are depending on certain patterns and all of these other things, right? Yep, yep. And that's you know, that's one of the reasons why we, we focus on whether the way we do is, is, you know, it impacts more than just our day to day lives in terms of do I bring it in or not? Energy prices. You know, of course, agriculture, we all know from this past years, cold snap at the end of January or February, that really hurt crops. And so absolutely, we need to be looking at those sorts of impacts when we're talking about these things. Of course, I am not an economist. I don't know that you know exactly what's going to happen across the country with this super El Nino, but there will be impacts. Yeah, that's why I, I let you off the hook at the beginning of that one. Thank you. I went and listened back to our conversation from 2023, when Richard and I were in Gainesville for the conference, and at the end of it, I asked you and Jeff at the time about, AI and whether it was five months after ChatGPT had been released. So we were still in the budding stages of what these language models were capable of. Has anything, any tools being built around these emerging technologies entered y'all's world at print at all? So I googled has a product. It's there whether lab and, I like to look at that product in conjunction with the other numerical models that I'll look at during the course of the day. I would say I forget which season it was. I think it was the 2020 season. A pretty good job, actually. But, you know, no, no model is perfect. Some are based off of physics, off of history. And so, you know, but yes, to answer your question, yes, I've looked at that particular model. And I think as time goes on, we'll see more products coming out. And, you know, we'll just add them to the, to the toolbox. I don't ever look at one model or one model and just say, okay, that's the forecast. We look at a lot of things. And so that's just another element in the forecasting process now is looking at that weather lab from Google. So in other words you're just kind of keeping track of it. And as time goes on you can be like, oh, it did pretty good or it didn't do so good. Yeah, exactly. There's there's some models now that can do very well in some situations and not in others. So it's just noting which ones do well when and knowing when to use them. That is that is the big part of the meteorologist is knowing when to use which models and how. So, you know, as time goes on, we'll continue to to note those patterns and, you know, do our best at forecasting events. So you mentioned that there is something that they're keeping sort of an eye on out in the Atlantic right now, but otherwise the skies are clear for for weeks at least. Yeah. I mean they're right off the coast of Africa. It's got a low chance of developing over the seven day period, but it is an area they're watching. For us in Florida. There's a cold front that's going to be coming on through toward the end of the week. Now, I'm not sure how far the dry air is actually going to get to South Florida. I know North and Central Florida will have a nice breath of fresh air. Actually going to look right now. And you perked me up. I. Feel it. I perked up when you said cold front. It's always that that first time we get to see a six in the first number, no overnight temperature is a big deal here in Southwest Florida. I don't know if you'll get to that. We'll see. But you're certainly going to feel the drop in humidity by the end of the week and into the weekend with, I'm ready for it. I mean, I love summer, but I am ready for a little bit of that. And just last question, it's kind of a point you made at the end of that conversation we had in 2023 that, you know, we are in an El Nino, we are in a super El Nino. But another year where we had a strong El Nino was 2005, and that's the year that brought us Katrina. So people should stay aware, no matter what they think is going to happen., 100%. Don't ever get lulled as a security. It just takes one storm. We know that with Ian. That just keeps one storm to to negatively impact your lives and your property. And then the other thing is, if we do get off the hook this season, look into the winter time months, because we might have a situation where we're looking at severe thunderstorms during the winter. You know, what I think about is the 1998 Central Florida tornado outbreak in February. February. That was the year. And so, you know, we're not out of the woods. Hurricane season concludes, but we'll cover all of it. Everybody. So just into GQ and we'll have a covered. Megan a senior meteorologist with the Florida Public Radio emergency Network. Always a pleasure to talk with you, Megan. Especially when it's not a disaster. Amen to that. Thanks, Mike. Now's a good time to remind listeners that despite our current calm conditions, the official end of the 2026 season is not till the end of November. So stay informed. You can get our WGCU app or the free Florida Storms app on your phone or tablet or show. Today was produced by yours truly, with audio production by Emma Rodriguez and video production by David Oquendo. For now, thanks for listening I’m Mike Kiniry. This is WGCU-FM Fort Myers 90.1 WMKO Marco Island 91.7 FM. We are NPR for Southwest Florida.