Super El Niño Year Fails and Hurricanes

IT HAS BEEN A QUIET ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ON SUNDAY, TROPICAL STORM FAY BECAME JUST THE 6TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON AND WELL, MORE DEVELOPMENT COULD FORM BEFE THE OFFICIAL END ON NOVEMBER. 30TH WEATHER EXPERTS SAY THEY ARE OPTIMISTIC THAT A MAJOR STORM WILL NOT IMPACT FLORIDA THIS YEAR. BUT THIS COMES 4 YEARS TO THE DAY WHEN HURRICANE IAN RAPIDLY FORMED IN THE GULF AND WITHIN 5 DAYS MADE LANDFALL. SO THE QUESTION REMAINS, IS THERE STILL A CHANCE FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS SEASON? >> A QUIET STORM SEASON SO FAR ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. >> WE ARE NOW JOINED BY CERTIFIED METEOROLOGIST IRENE SANZ FROM THE FLORIDA PUBLIC RADIO EMERGENCY NETWORK IRENE. IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU AGAIN. GREAT TO SEE IT TO US. >> ASHLEY, WITH AMERICANS, IT'S GREAT NEWS, ISN'T IT? YES, IT IS. >> WE ARE APPROACHING THE ANNIVERSARY OF HURRICANE IAN MAKING LANDFALL HERE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA YET THIS YEAR. SO FAR HAS BEEN STRANGELY QUIET. WHAT IS THE BACKGROUND OF THIS? >> IT'S MAINLY DUE TO AN EL NINA EL NINO. IT'S A WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT JUST ONE SYSTEM IS NOT A HURRICANE OR A TORNADO. IT'S A BIG, BIG WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAPPENS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. BUT THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS PRETTY MUCH ACROSS A BIG CHUNK OF THE WORLD FOR US HERE IN THE ATLANTIC. IT SUPPRESSES HAVE TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY AND WHAT IT DOES IS IT DOWN? ENHANCES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH THEN SUPPRESSES THE TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY. THAT'S WHY WE HAVEN'T SEEN A LOT OF STORMS IN THE STORMS THAT WE HAVE SEEN. THEY HAVE FREE MEAN WEAKER. SO HAVING A NEW PRESIDENT AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC JUST BRINGS. WEAKER STORMS, NOT NECESSARILY LESS STORMS, BUT THE STORMS THAT DO FORM TEND TO BE WEAKER. NOW, THIS DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE NEED TO PUT OUR GUARD DOWN. WE STILL NEED TO LEAVE OUR GUARD UP BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH THE PEAK OF THE SEASON HAS COME AND TELL A CHUCKLE. SPEAKING HAS PASSED, WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SYSTEMS. FOREMAN. >> THERE'S A LOT OF TALK ABOUT EL NINO AND ITS IMPACT ON THE WEATHER PATTERNS AND A LOT OF PEOPLE MAY NOT QUITE UNDERSTAND HOW IT WORKS OR WHY IT IMPACTS OUR STORM SEASON. CAN YOU SIMPLIFY IT FOR US? >> DEFINITELY SO. AND THEN YOU HAPPENS IN THE PACIFIC. IT ENHANCES WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS THESE STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IS THAT BASICALLY DENSE TROPICAL SYSTEMS. IT DOESN'T ALLOW THE NATURAL CYCLE TO CONTINUE OFF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE WATERS IN THE PACIFIC HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY WARM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEY'RE RUNNING AROUND 4.5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS A LOT. I MEAN, THINK OF IT AS HAVING A FEVER OR 8, 1, WHEN OUR BODY TEMPERATURES GO UP ONE OR 2 DEGREES. WE STARTED A LITTLE BIT ILL. THE SAME THING WITH THE EARTH NOW IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS WHAT ARE SURE EXTREMELY WARM AND IT BRINGS HIGHER TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC. AND THAT'S WHAT THEY HAVE SEEN. THEY HAVE HAD 6 SOME SIZE, 7 HURRICANES, 4 OF THEM HAVE BECOME MAJOR HURRICANES FOR US. IT'S OPPOSITE. WE COULD STILL HAVE WARMER WATERS THERE FOR US. WE HAVE HAD SOME STORMS FORMING, BUT WE HAVE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WINDSHEAR. THOSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT TEND TO DENT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE BIT MORE AND DO NOT ALLOW FOR THIS NATURAL CYCLE TO CONTINUE OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THAT'S WHY THE STORM SAID WE HAVE HAD THE SEASON HAVE BEEN WEAKER OR HAVE STAYED IN THE TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WE HAVE NOT SEEN A HURRICANE THIS SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC, WHICH IS GREAT, GREAT NEWS AND EVEN OUT IN THE WATER OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IT HAPPENS IN THE MODERN ERA, WHICH WE TEND TO SAY FROM THE 1960'S OVER BECAUSE THAT'S WHEN STARTED OR VIOLENT. AND THAT'S WHEN WE HAVE AN EYE ON A CROSS. THE EARTH. >> WELL, YOU HAVE A GREAT STORY ABOUT RAINFALL. ALL THAT COMING AT US IN THE NEAR FUTURE. HOW DOES THAT IMPACT OUR CURRENT DROUGHT? >> WELL, RIGHT NOW, THE DROUGHT HASS. >> IMPROVED THE CROSS OF FLORIDA WEISE. WE'RE STILL SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A DROUGHT HAPPENED IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA STILL ARE ARE DEALING SOME PATCHES OF EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, FLORIDA. WE'RE STILL UNDER A NORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THIS IS IMPROVING. WE HAVE DEFINITELY SEEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE, WHICH HELP SUPPRESS A LITTLE BIT. THE HEAT THAT WE'VE HAD PRETTY MUCH ALL SUMMER. AND WE'VE HAD SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH, FLORIDA. NOW, MOST OF THE RAIN, THE MOST INTENSE RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED MANY ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FOR HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED THE 3RD WETTEST SEPTEMBER SO FAR FOR US HERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THOSE ROUNDS AND ROUNDS OF RAIN AND WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING A COLD FRONT NOW. DON'T GET TOO EXCITED BECAUSE THIS COLD FRONT IS BUSH AN OVER THE PENINSULA UP, BUT IT'S NOT QUITE GOING TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND. 2 WORDS SAID THE WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL STAY RAINY AT TIMES WITH THOSE TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AND THEN WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE ONE THINKS GOOD DRY. ADD A LITTLE BIT. >> AND WE ARE OFFICIALLY NOW INTO FALL. IT MAY NOT FEEL LIKE IT, BUT WE ARE AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO FALL AND WINTER. ARE THERE ANY WEATHER PATTERNS THAT YOU'RE KEEPING TABS ON? >> WELL, WITHOUT BEING A PRECEDENT, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO THE PRESIDENT, AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT YEAR. WE CAN START TO NOTICE HOW THE PATTERN IS GOING TO SHIFT NOW. WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE UNITED STATES WHERE WE'RE EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHEN WE HAVEN'T AND, YOU KNOW, PRESENT DURING DURING THE WINTERS. BUT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHICH TEND TO TRAVEL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE THE UNITED STATES AND THE CONTINUES UNITED STATES. WE CAN START TO SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE ARE STRONGER SYSTEMS PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST, WHICH BRING STRONGER FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. WHAT USUALLY? CLEMENTA LOGICALLY SPEAKING WHEN WE HAVE AN AMINO PRESENT BRINGS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE WINTER MONTHS. SO I WOULD BE LOOKING OUT FOR MAYBE COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE WINTER. STORMIER WEATHER WHICH TENDS TO PRODUCE, OF COURSE, THE MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF PATTERN THAT WE JUST NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT, ESPECIALLY NOVEMBER DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FERRY. >> WE MIGHT ACTUALLY NEED WHETHER YEAR IN FLORIDA IT SOUNDS LIKE. >> I LIVE IN LIGHT OF MOVEMENT. THANKS TO INVEST IN MAYBE A LIGHT JACKET. >> THANK YOU SO MUCH, HIRING FOR JOINING US TODAY. APPRECIATE IT. THANK YOU SO MUCH OF A GREAT THING. >> AS WE INCH CLOSER TO THE END