Housing Market Shifts and Iran’s Impact

SO FAR, 2026 HAS BEEN A STABLE YEAR FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA'S RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET. OVERALL INVENTORY HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED AND HOME SALES ARE RISING. EXPERTS SAY PRICES ARE COURSE CORRECTING COMPARED TO POST PANDEMIC INFLATED PRICES. MORTGAGE RATES, HOWEVER, TICKING BACK UP TO A RECORD HIGH FOR 2026. TO CLOSE OUT MARCH. >> HOME SALES AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE ON THE UP TICK COMPARED TO ONE YEAR AGO. >> WE ARE NOW JOINED BY REAL ESTATE BROKER, AUTHOR AND PRESENTER OF MARKET TRENDS. DANNY GRIMES FOR A LOOK AT THE STATE OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE. DENIS, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TODAY. YEAH, GOOD MORNING. YOU PRESENTED SOME NUMBERS AT MARKET TRENDS OF THE LARGEST REAL ESTATE CONFERENCE IN THE COUNTRY OF ITS KIND RECENTLY HELD IN FORT MYERS. INVENTORY HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT. AND FLORIDA IS HOUSING MARKET HAS SHOWN GROWTH EACH MONTH IN THE PAST 6 MONTHS. HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE WHAT IS GOING ON IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA? >> WELL, IT'S INTERESTING THAT MANY NEWS SOURCES LOOK FOR THE THE BRIGHT SPOT IN THE QUAGMIRE OF BASICALLY BAD NEWS. AND SO THERE IS A REALLY BAD NEWS OR ILL SAY THERE IS JUST NEW. SO I WOULD ADD SOME PERSPECTIVE TO IT. YES, THE LAST 6 MONTHS BASICALLY HOME SALES MONTH OVER MONTH OR YEAR OVER YEAR FOR THE LAST 6 MONTHS HAVE BEEN GIRL GOING. HOWEVER, OUR SALES WERE AT A 10 YEAR LOW. SO WE'RE USING LOW NUMBERS. SO WHAT THAT MIGHT MEAN IS WE'RE KIND OF ON THE RECOVERY. BILL, LET ME EXPLAIN SOMETHING REALLY FIRST. YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE STATE OF FLORIDA, HAVE THE NUMBERS BEHIND ME. THE SALES ARE DOWN. PRICES ARE DOWN IN THE STATE. SO IT'S NOT LIKE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA'S ONLY ONCE OFFERING IN SPITE OF THE WALL STREET SAYING CAPE CORAL'S, THE WORST MARKET IN THE COUNTRY. WE REALLY HAVE 2 STORIES, JENNIFER, IN EVERYTHING REVOLVES AROUND TIMING IN REAL ESTATE AND GIVE ME 30 SECONDS TO KIND OF EXPLAIN THIS. YOU SEE DURING THE COVID YEARS IN THE SLIDE BEHIND ME, YOU CAN SEE THAT THIS IS THE PERCENT CHANGE IN OUR PRICES OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS. AND WE HAVE THE EXPLOSION FROM 2020 21. 22, OUR PRICES WENT UP DRAMATICALLY. AND YOU KNOW WHAT? THAT PUT A LOT OF EQUITY IN CELLARS POCKETS. AND THE GOOD NEWS IS FOR THE PEOPLE THAT ARE SELLING, IT'S STILL THERE. ALTHOUGH CALL, THOUGH, SHRINKING SO IN SPITE OF THE SALES SLOWING SELLERS ARE STILL WINNING. >> IF SOMEONE BOUGHT A HOME IN OUR AREA BEFORE THE PANDEMIC, YOU HAVE STATED THEY LIKELY HAVE SOMETHING I HAD NOT HEARD OF, BUT IT'S CALLED WINDFALL EQUITY. CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHAT THAT TERM MEANS FOR HOME OWNERS AND HOW IT IMPACTS OUR MARKET TODAY. >> I'M GLAD YOU ASKED THE QUESTION BECAUSE THIS IS AN IMPORTANT CONCEPT NATIONALLY AS WELL AS LOCALLY. I MEAN, HOMES CAN BE AVERAGED OUT OF THE STANDARD UPWARD MOVEMENT OF AROUND 4%. SO IN THE GRAPH BEHIND ME, I'VE GOT THE MEDIAN SALES PRICE OF LEE COUNTY. COLLIER COUNTY IS VERY SIMILAR AND THAT RED LINE REPRESENTS THE 4%. NOW, IF YOU LOOK BACK HERE BACK WHEN THAT WE HAD THE BUBBLE EQUITY WAS WAY ABOVE THE 4% LINE, WHICH MEANS AT THAT PARTICULAR TIME, SELLERS WOKE UP ONE PARTICULAR MOURNING WHEN THE MARKET WENT CRAZY AND THEY HAD SATCHELS AND SUITCASES FOR MONEY ON THEIR PORCH. THEY HAD A WINDFALL OF EQUITY. AND YOU KNOW WHAT? THE SELLERS THAT SOLD DURING THAT TIME BENEFITED FROM IT. AND THEN BASICALLY THE SAME THING HAPPENED HERE DURING THE COVID YEARS. 2021 22 OR WE'VE SEEN MEDIAN SALES PRICES GO FROM A BASE YEAR OF 2019 TO 2022 UP 70, 80 OR 90% AS YOU'RE WALKING OUT ON YOUR PORCH, JENNIFER AND HAVE IT ALL THAT MONEY LAYING THERE JUST BECAUSE YOU WOKE UP. >> THAT'S A GREAT THING. NOW, IF SOMEONE HAS HAD THEIR HOME ON THE MARKET FOR, LET'S SAY 60 DAYS CURRENTLY, WHAT WOULD BE YOUR ADVICE TO THEM IF THEY ARE TRYING TO SELL AND IT HAS BEEN SITTING. >> WELL, OKAY. SHOW. >> THE ON ON THE OTHER SIDE, THOUGH, A MINUTE FOR EVERY YOUNG, THERE'S A YANG, RIGHT? JUST BUT THERE'S WINDFALL EQUITY. PRICES WILL THEN SETTLED DOWN AND GO BELOW THE 4%. RON ONLINE, WHICH MAY CALL EQUITY IN OR SHOW. SO IF THERE'S A SELLER ON THE MARKET NOW AND THEY PURCHASED PRIOR TO 2022 AND YOU'RE NOT SELLING, YOU'RE GONNA HAVE TO REPOSITION. BUT THAT'S OKAY. YOU STILL GOT A LOT OF MONEY LAYING ON YOUR PORCH, BUT THERE'S LESS EVERY DAY IF YOU PURCHASE. AFTER 2022 EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A NAPLES, NAPLES. LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT. YOU MIGHT NOT BE MAKING MONEY. SO IF YOU DON'T HAVE TO SELL. BECAUSE IN TIME YOUR REAL ESTATE PURCHASE INVESTMENT WILL TRY TO BE A GOOD ONE. >> AND ANY TIPS FOR BUYERS WHO MIGHT BE WAITING FOR PRICES THINKING THEY'RE THEY'RE GOING TO GO DOWN. >> YES, WELL. >> IT'S VERY THEY ARE GOING TO GO DOWN IN IN THE THE SALES ARE PICKING UP A LITTLE BIT. PRICES ARE SETTLING DOWN. I STILL THINK PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE GOOD BUYS IN THE MARKET RIGHT NOW. I MEAN, GENERALLY SPEAKING THE BEST TIME FOR A BUYER TO BUY WHEN THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARKET. AND IF WHAT, IF YOU DO THE NEWS? SO THERE'S TONS OF UNCERTAINTY. IF YOU IF YOU WAIT UNTIL THE MARKET CONTINUES TO HEAT UP AND I BELIEVE WE PROBABLY HIT BOTTOM WHERE EVERY DAY OR WEEK THAT GOES BY, IT BECOMES LESS ATTRACTIVE FOR ACQUIRED. TAKE ADVANTAGE AND GET A BETTER BUYS. SO STEPPING IN SOONER IS BETTER THAN WAITING FOR MOST BUYERS. >> DANNY, THERE ARE NEW HIGH-RISE PROJECTS. YOU HAVE RECENTLY ATTENDED SOME OF THESE GROUNDBREAKING CEREMONIES, I THINK FROM NAPLES TO FORT MYERS, WE WERE DISCUSSING THEM EARLIER. HOW ARE THOSE PROJECTS GOING TO BE SUSTAINED? WHAT WHAT WHAT IS MOTIVATING TO HAVE TOWERS AND HIGH RISES BUILT IN AREAS WHERE THAT KIND OF CONSTRUCTION FOR MULTI-FAMILY HOMES HAS NOT OCCURRED IN AT LEAST 2 DECADES. >> WELL, YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT DOWNTOWN ONE IS GOING TO BE THAT NEW 20 SOME STORY BUILDING THAT THEY'RE GONNA BUILT. WE HAVEN'T HAD A CRANE BUILDING A HIGH-RISE DOWN THERE FOR 20 PLUS YEARS. AND I THINK THE TIMING IS PERFECT. KNOW, AGAIN, THE CONDO MARKET IS THE SOFTEST PARKER. WE HAVE THE HIGH-RISE MARKET IN LEE COUNTY IS THE SOFTEST OF THE CONDO MARKETS REALLY? SO THE RETAIL SIDE, HOWEVER, WITH ONE BEING BUILT. ONE DOWNTOWN IS AFFECTED BY THE TIME THEY GET ON A GUN UNDER CONSTRUCTION. THE MARKET WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AND THEY WILL BE THE ONLY QUOTE, NEW PRODUCT ON THE MARKET. I THINK YOUR TIME IS GOING TO BE GOOD. NOW WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO COLLIER COUNTY, IT'S CRAZY. I'VE BEEN DOING THIS FOR 4 DECADES AND I WAS THE OPENING LAST NIGHT AND WHAT'S HAPPENING KIND OF AN EAST NAPLES, 8, NAPLES IS CHANGING THE 5TH AND 3RD WILL ALWAYS BE 5TH AND 3RD, BUT NAPLES IS GROWING EAST AND THERE'S SOME AMAZING THINGS HAPPENING WHERE THEY'RE TEARING DOWN THE EXISTING BUILDINGS THAT ARE PERFECTLY GOOD AND PUTTING UP MCMANSIONS, YOU KNOW, CONDOS THAT STARTED 3 MILLION TO GO TO 7 MILLION. THAT ARE NO NOWHERE NEAR THE BEACH. AND I'M THINKING, MAN, I WISH I WAS 25 OR 30 YEARS YOUNGER BECAUSE REAL ESTATE IS GOING TO GET REAL FUN HERE. THE NEXT 10 OR 15 YEARS. >> SO LOTS OF HIGH-DENSITY PROJECTS. >> I GUESS IT BECAUSE THERE'S NO MORE LAND UNLESS YOU WANT TO GO FURTHER EAST TO THE GOLDEN GATE, ENTERS DEVELOPMENT OUT THAT WAY. BUT STILL, PEOPLE WANT TO BE IN THAT BOAT DOWNTOWN 3RD 5003TH, ALTHOUGH THAT THAT IN SPOT IS GROWING. >> DAN, IS THERE ANYTHING ELSE THAT YOU WANT TO SHARE ABOUT THE CURRENT STATE OF OUR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET? >> YEAH, THE ISSUE IS WE REALLY DON'T, JENNIFER, WE DON'T HAVE A DEMAND ISSUE. I MEAN, PEOPLE WANT TO BE HERE. WE HAD AN AFFORDABILITY ISSUE. COSTS WENT UP. PRICES WENT UP AND INSURANCE, ET CETERA. AND SO PRICES ARE GOING TO SETTLE BACK DOWN INTO A FIND, FIND A NUMBER WHICH WILL BE MAJOR ABSORPTION IS. BUT THE OTHER THING, PEOPLE STILL WANT TO BE HERE. AND WHEN YOU YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE STATES ARE FEEDER STATES AREN'T LOOKING REALLY THAT GREAT WITH SOME OF THE CHANGE IN THEIR POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTS TAX IN SITUATIONS. PEOPLE STILL WANT TO BE IN FLORIDA. WE OFFER WATERWORTH AND WAY OF LIFE AND PEOPLE ARE COMING IN. OUR MARKET WILL HAVE ITS HIGHS AND LOWS BUT WILL HAVE AN UPWARD PATH. >> OVER THE NEXT 10 OR 20 YEARS. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TODAY. DANNY GRIMES. >> AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, HOME SALES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. >> THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WORRY THE ONGOING WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN THIS PART OF OUR IN FOCUS BUSINESS COVERAGE. WE ARE JOINED BY WGCU NEWS REPORTER MIKE WALCHER TO LEARN MORE. THANKS FOR JOINING US ON SET MY CONCLAVE TO BE HERE. >> YOU KNOW, PEOPLE IN THE INDUSTRY THAT I TALK WITH THE REALLY PINPOINT THE SALES PRICE IS COMING DOWN AS THE MAIN REASON THE THINGS ARE IMPROVING THEY ALSO SAY THAT SOME OF THE NEW HOME OWNERSHIP WAS THAT THE STATE PASSED 3 YEARS AGO HAVE NOT TAKEN EFFECT. SO THE MARKET HAS FOUND SOME STABILITY. SOME CLARITY BUT THEN WE COME TO FEBRUARY. 28, THE U.S. AND ISRAEL STARTED BOMBING AROUND THAT COUNTRY COUNTERS WITH ATTACKS ON ISRAEL AND OTHER MIDEAST NATIONS. THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED, HOLDING 20% OF THE WORLD OIL DELIVERY GAS PRICES GO WAY UP, COST OF OTHER PRODUCTS DEPENDENT ON PETROLEUM COULD INCREASE SOON. SO HOW DOES THAT AFFECT HOMES FOR SALE AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA? WELL, THIS HAPPENS TO BE A BIG SELLING PERIOD AS SOME VISITORS ARE MAKING DECISIONS ON WHETHER TO BUY A SECOND HOME HERE OR EVEN MOVED TO THIS AREA FULL TIME. WE TALK WITH JEANNE DRAFT. SHE'S PRESIDENT OF THE BONITA SPRINGS ESTERO REALTORS ASSOCIATION. >> THERE'S TENSION, OF COURSE, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE CONCERNS THAT THEY'RE DONE. I DON'T HAVE ANY OF MY SELLERS CURRENTLY THAT ARE SO CONCERNED THAT THEY'RE NOT GOING TO SELL OR THAT THEY'RE WORRIED THAT THE HOUSE ISN'T. IS IT GOING TO SELL BECAUSE OF WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE AND THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT, INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT. SO I THINK THAT WE'RE STILL MOVING WORST. PEOPLE ARE STILL BUYING. DO I LIKE THAT? THERE'S A WAR GOING ON. ABSOLUTELY NOT. DO I THINK THAT IT'S GOING TO AFFECT REAL ESTATE IN SOME MARKETS? YES, I DO. IT. I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO AFFECT REAL ESTATE SO MUCH IN OUR MARKET. OUR MARKET IS IS A SPECIAL TYPE OF THE MARKET WHERE, YOU KNOW, WE GET A LOT OF SECOND-HOME BUYERS. WE GET A LOT OF VACATION HOME BUYERS, INVESTORS, THINGS LIKE THAT. THOSE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO DO WHAT THEY DO. AND THEY'RE GOING TO LIVE THEIR LIFE NO MATTER WHAT'S HAPPENING OVER THERE. >> AND MIKE, YOU SPOKE TO SELLERS. WHAT ARE THEY SAYING CURRENTLY? YEAH, WE'RE TRYING TO GET SOME PEOPLE TO GO ON CAMERA, BUT THEY WERE AFRAID. THEY SAY THE WRONG THING OR MESS UP A DEAL, POSSIBLY. THEY ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC. I TALK ABOUT 5. SO I'M HERE AND SOME OF THOSE STATE, THEY SAY THAT THEY IF THEY WERE IF IF A BUYER REALLY WANTS TO BE HERE AND THEY HAVE THEIR FINANCING AND THEIR DREAMS ARE HERE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THEY'RE GOING TO GO THROUGH WITH THE SALE. SO CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM, I GUESS IS THE BEST WAY TO PUT IT. AND THAT'S GOOD NEWS. PEOPLE WILL ALWAYS WANT TO COME HERE. THEY WILL. YES, THEY WILL. THANK YOU, MIKE, SO MUCH FOR