Explaining Economic Trends

>> AS THE COST OF LIVING CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOCALS JUST WANT TO KNOW IF THERE'S ANY RELIEF ON THE HORIZON. WGCUS MIKE WALCHER SAT WITH ONE EXPERT WHO HELPED COMPILE AN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THAT GIVES A SNAPSHOT ON SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. >> AS WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ECONOMY, SOME OF THE KEY TOPICS AFFECTING US INCLUDE RISING GAS PRICES AND ALSO AFFORDABLE HOUSING WHEN IT COMES TO LOOKING FORWARD ABOUT POSSIBLE RELIEF FOR THE POMP AND MAYBE SOLUTIONS OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET, WE CAN GET A BETTER PICTURE. MY UTILIZING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORT. AND JOINING ME NOW IS JOHN SHANNON, A RESEARCH ECONOMIST IN THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE AT FLORIDA GULF COAST UNIVERSITY. JOHN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US. WHAT ARE THE SOME OF THE MAIN THINGS THAT YOU'RE SEEING IN THE REPORT ABOUT OUR LOCAL ECONOMIES? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, I I SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS, WE'VE SEEN ECONOMY IS SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE BIT FROM FROM DIFFERENT ASPECTS RIGHT NOW. WE SEE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TICKING UP QUITE A LITTLE BIT OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS WE'VE SEEN ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AS WELL. AND AND SO IT PAINTS A PICTURE OF AN ECONOMY THAT IS SLOWING DOWN. BUT WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE LARGER PICTURE, WHEN WE THINK ABOUT WHERE WE CAME FROM IN 2021, 2022, AND I THINK IT'S IT'S A IT'S A NATURAL PROGRESSION. BECAUSE 2021 2022 OR SUCH HIGH YEARS THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE IT'S A BIT OF A CORRECTION SOMEWHAT SHOW YOU THAT YOU'RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT IT. AND WE'RE NOT. >> GOING INTO A REAL DOWNTURN. I WOULD CALL A DOWN TONIGHT. I WOULD CALL, YOU THE MODERATION, IF YOU WILL. AND, YOU KNOW, WE WE RAN PRETTY HOT LIKE I SAID IN 2021. 2022, WE HAD A LOT OF SEASONAL RESIDENTS COMING DOWN. A LOT OF TERRORISM DURING THAT TIME. YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THE TIME YOU DO WITH A LOT OF THE PENT-UP DEMAND FROM SOME OF THE COVID MITIGATION MEASURES. WE HAD THE STIMULUS PACKAGES THAT INCENTIVIZE MORE SPENDING DOWN HERE. AND AS HAS ALL THAT HAPPENED, A LOT OF FOLKS MADE THEIR WAY DOWN HERE DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. WE SAW QUITE A LOT OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND AT SOME POINT THAT WAS GOING TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BIT. I THINK WE'VE SEEN THAT OVER THE PAST 12, 18 WHAT ARE SOME OF THE THINGS, ONE OF THE TRENDS THAT YOU'RE SEEING THIS SIZE THIS TO SLOW DOWN AS YOU PUT IT. >> WELL, >> YOU KNOW, IN IN IN MORE RECENT TIMES CAN BE IN THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS. WE'VE SEEN OBVIOUSLY THE THE CONCERN IS NOW WITH WITH INFLATION AND WHAT THAT'S GOING TO DEAL WITH, YOU KNOW, THE CONFLICT OVER OVERSEAS AND WE WE ACTUALLY JUST, YOU KNOW, GOT SOME SOME DAYTON TODAY FROM FROM THE CPI JUST FINISH UP DOWN ON THE DASHBOARD BEFORE COMING IN. AND WE SAW THAT THE CPI TO TAKE UP A LITTLE BIT. IT WAS IT WAS A BEEN EXPECTED GIVEN WHAT WE'RE SEEING OVERSEAS AND BUT THAT'S IN THAT WE HAVE TO CONSIDER, YOU KNOW, OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN? AND AS WE START TO MORE CLARITY WITH WITH WITH THE CONFLICT OVERSEAS, HOW >> THOSE RATES ARE GOING TO START COMING DOWN. LET'S TALK A LITTLE ABOUT HOUSING AND AFFORDABLE. HOUSING HAS BEEN SUCH A PHRASE >> REALLY SINCE HURRICANE IAN, EVEN IAN, AND EVEN BEFORE. >> WHERE ARE WE ON THAT? IT IS THE HOUSING BECOMING MORE AFFORDABLE FOR FOLKS WHO WANT TO RENT OR BUY. >> WE'VE WE'VE SEEN THE PRICES COME DOWN OVER THE PAST PAST YEAR. MEDIAN PRICES ACROSS ALL 3 COUNTIES THAT WE TRACK. YOU KNOW, LEE CHARLOTTE, COLLIER IS ACTUALLY REMAINED. I KIND OF RESILIENCE. WE HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN MUCH DOWNWARD PRESSURE THERE. BUT WE HAVE SEEN AN INCH DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND BUT WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT EVEN AS WE'VE SEEN MEDIAN PRICE FOR EXISTING HOME SALES COME DOWN OVER THE PAST YEAR THAT THEY ARE STILL ABOUT 15, 20% OVER PRE-COVID NUMBERS. RIGHT? SO EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN THAT DOWNWARD PRESSURE AND A LOT OF THIS COULD BE, YOU KNOW, DUE TO THE INCREASED SUPPLY IN A MORE FAVORABLE LENDING AND ENVIRONMENT. BUT EVEN OUTSIDE OF ALL THAT, WE'RE STILL SEEING STILL ELEVATED COMPARED TO PRE-COVID. >> AS WE HEAD INTO SUMMER, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE KEY THING IS THAT YOU'RE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT? I PRESUME GAS PRICES WILL BE ONE BECAUSE A LOT OF PEOPLE DRIVE TO THIS AREA FOR SUMMER GETAWAYS. >> WELL, THE THE INFLATION IS CERTAINLY ONE, RIGHT, BECAUSE IT'S NOT JUST GAS PRICES, BUT ALSO HOW YOU KNOW, DIESEL PRICES START FACTORING INTO OTHER AREAS OF A HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, RIGHT? THINK ABOUT CO GROCERIES. YOU THINK ABOUT SERVICES THE MOST GOOD. THEY'RE GOING TO BE AFFECTED BY, YOU KNOW, INCREASING GAS PRICES AT SOME POINT BECAUSE GAS GOES INTO MOST GOODS AT SOME POINT DURING THEIR PRODUCTION PROCESS. AND AND SO LOOKING AT OVER THE SUMMER MONTHS, YOU KNOW, THAT'S THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE SOMETHING COMES DOWN RIGHT AWAY. IT'S GOING TO TAKE TAKE A FEW MONTHS, EVEN IF YOU KNOW, THE CONFLICT ENDED TODAY, HE WILL BE ASK YOU IN YOUR HEART. HOW ARE YOU FEELING? LOOKING AHEAD? >> ARE YOU CAUTIOUS OPTIMISTIC GUARDED 9? I THINK COMES I'M STILL OPTIMISTIC. >> YOU KNOW, I I I KNOW RIGHT NOW THEY NEED THESE ARE. RIGHT NOW. WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS, YOU KNOW, SOME SOME DAY, A SLOWING DOWN. AND YOU KNOW, IT'S IT'S IT MY PREP AND INJURY PICTURE. BUT I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE LARGER AND LARGER PICTURE AND THAT THERE'S STILL A LOT OF LOT OF FAITH IN IN THIS ECONOMY. YOU KNOW, WE'RE STILL SEEING A LOT OF EXPANSION. WE'RE SEEING A LOT OF CONSTRUCTION HAVE A LOT OF COMMERCIAL EXPANSION. AND, YOU KNOW, YOU SEE, YOU KNOW, LIKELY HEALTH EXPANDING AS WE SEE THE NEW AMAZON FACILITY BEING BUILT. THE RSW EXPANSION AS WELL THAT THERE'S A LOT OF BELIEF THAT WE'RE STILL GOING TO SEE A LOT OF POPULATION MIGRATION OVER OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS. AND THAT ALONE CAN HELP PROP UP ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE REGION AS WELL. >> WELL, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US, JOHN, GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE. AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO HAVING YOU BACK TO TALK ABOUT THE NEXT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. THANK YOU. THANK YOU.